War by Other Means: The Unintended Consequences of a Long-Held Ambition

The conflict between Israel, Iran, and the US has been brewing for years, but its effects have become impossible to ignore. Six months into the war, the consequences are starting to add up – not just in terms of lives lost or infrastructure destroyed, but also on the home front.

One of the most striking aspects of this conflict is how it has exposed the deep-seated divisions within each country’s leadership. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to achieve his long-held ambition of a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran has left him trailing in the polls and facing intense criticism from both within and outside his own party.

For years, Netanyahu pushed for regime change in Tehran, convinced that it was essential to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. However, this approach has backfired spectacularly. As Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst, notes, instead of stopping Iran’s nuclear program, the war has only made it more resilient – and closer than ever to achieving its goal.

Netanyahu’s gamble may have been driven by a desire to secure his own election prospects, but as Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, points out, this was a catastrophic miscalculation. The war hasn’t given Netanyahu the momentum he so desperately needed; instead, it has only added to the list of failures that are dogging him.

In the US, President Donald Trump’s decision to enter the war on Iran without clear congressional support or a well-thought-out strategy has left him struggling to explain the costs and benefits of this costly endeavour. The economic toll of the war is beginning to weigh heavily on Americans, with petrol prices soaring by 50 percent since February.

The issue of Israel has risen to prominence in American public discourse – not just as a foreign policy issue but also as a pocketbook concern. As Shibley Telhami, a government and politics professor at the University of Maryland, points out, the war has become a litmus test for Trump’s approval ratings, which are now at an all-time low.

Despite these consequences, the Iranian government remains remarkably resilient. While sanctions and the US blockade have taken a heavy toll on the economy, they have not yet led to widespread unrest or internal dissent. In fact, highly enriched uranium is still in place, and Iran’s proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah are still operational – albeit reduced.

This raises fundamental questions about the effectiveness of military action in achieving strategic goals. As Aaron David Miller noted, no future administration is likely to consider such a military campaign again, given its failure to achieve its objectives. This is not just a commentary on the Trump administration but also on the wider implications for US foreign policy.

The Iranian government’s resilience is all the more remarkable given the circumstances. The US blockade has been inflicting a staggering $435m a day on the country – but Iran’s entire political and military system was built around preserving its independence and sovereignty. It seems that this timeless task remains their top priority, even in the face of overwhelming economic pressure.

As we look to the future, it’s clear that the war between Israel, Iran, and the US has only just begun to unfold – and with it, a new era of unpredictable consequences. The unintended effects of a long-held ambition are starting to reveal themselves, and they will have far-reaching implications for all parties involved.